Fri December 3, 2010
More Proof of Changing Show-Me Electorate
Kansas City, MO – Missouri's Governor has a higher degree of crossover support than most governors in the country. A newly released poll shows Jay Nixon in a strong position halfway through his first term to win a second one.
The independent Public Policy Polling has interesting findings. One is that Nixon is weaker with Democratic voters than most Democratic governors around the U.S. But his numbers with independents and Republicans more than make up for tepid support from his base.
Tom Jensen is with the polling group and thinks some Missouri Republicans might have been conservative Democrats in the past--"and at the same time, if the Democratic Party is more liberal than it used to be, you can see where there might be some unrest with Nixon within the party ranks."
In a hypothetical contest, Nixon leads Republican Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder 47 to 39 if a Gubernatorial election was held right now.
At the same time, Nixon is nowhere close to the 20 percent margin of victory he pulled when he won in 2008. The incumbent's 10 point lead with independents is good, but nothing compared to the 21 point advantage Public Policy's last poll showed in 2008.
Given the mid-term election results Democrats just had in Missouri though, Nixon appears to be in an enviable position. His approval rating in the poll is 44 percent with 30 percent of voters disapproving of him. An unusual 26 percent had no opinion.
One of the most unusual results is that Nixon comes close to breaking even with Republicans, with 34 Percent approving and 37 percent disapproving of him.
PPP surveyed 515 Missouri voters from November 29th to December 1st. The survey's
margin of error is +/-4.3%. The group includes a disclaimer that other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and
weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.